From Baku to Belém: Key Highlights of the Amazon COP

COP30 in Belém didn’t change the science of climate change, but it did change the economics of doing nothing.

Landing straight after COP29 in Baku, the summit finally gave the world a clearer climate-finance architecture since Paris. Governments agreed on a new global finance goal, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG): USD 300 billion a year by 2035, with an ambition to mobilize USD 1.3 trillion annually^[1]. For the first time, the global system now has a defined financial “floor” and “ceiling” for mitigation, adaptation, resilience and loss-and-damage.

Belém pushed this momentum further by unveiling the Baku Adaptation Roadmap to 1.3T, launching a two-year programme to accelerate capital flows from 2026–28^[2]. And recognising the chronic underfunding of adaptation highlighted at COP29, countries agreed to triple adaptation finance—from USD 40B (target from COP 26) to USD 120B per year by 2035^[3]—unlocking resources for water security, coastal protection, resilient infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture among others.

Another breakthrough: COP30 adopted the world’s first 59 global adaptation indicators^[4], laying the technical foundation for measuring policies, systems, and resilience outcomes. Belém also turned concepts into concrete mechanisms by formally launching the Just Transition Mechanism^[5], focused on themes around workforce transitions, social equity, community resilience.

Beyond the negotiation halls, a surge of voluntary coalitions such as the green shipping corridors, the Belém 4X sustainable fuels pledge^[6], high-integrity carbon-market alliances i.e., Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM)/ Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI), and green-industry procurement clubs, signalled a new competitive landscape forming outside the UN process.

The message is clear: climate action is now shaped more by economic incentives, competitive pressure, and clear financial guardrails, shifting the baton from diplomatic ambitions. For fast-growing economies, the expectation is shifting from climate vision to execution, viz. turning these frameworks into bankable projects, investable pipelines, and skilled workforce transitions. At the same time, it also means that governments and businesses that move early on green-industry procurement, resilient infrastructure, sustainable fuels, carbon markets, will secure strategic advantages; laggards risk losing capital access, market relevance, and growth opportunities.

A decade after Paris, the era of “ESG as disclosure” is over. After Belém, success will be judged not by the elegance of pledges, but by the credibility of implementation quality.

10-Years After Paris: Why COP30 Matters More Than You Think

To grasp COP30’s real significance, it must be viewed as the next chapter in a decade-long story. COP15 (Paris, 2015) as we know as the landmark ‘Paris Agreement’ was the moment where The Global Framework is Born. The world first politically acknowledged the collective commitment to limit global warming below 2°C and ‘pursue efforts’ for 1.5°C^[7].

COP28 (Dubai, 2023) delivered the first Global Stocktake, revealing a harsh truth: the world is still heading toward 2.5–2.9°C, far off the 1.5°C path^[8]. This triggered pressures to define a new global climate financing goals, elevate adaptation needs and have measured indicators. That set the stage for COP29 (Baku, 2024), where negotiators hammered out the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), establishing a financial “floor” of USD 300B and a “ceiling” of USD 1.3T—finally giving investors and governments long-awaited predictability.

COP30 (Belém, 2025) then began converting these frameworks into practical systems. Marking a decade since Paris, it was the milestone for the submission of third-generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the countries, which must be far stronger, economy-wide, and 1.5°C-aligned, and with the result of 122 countries updating their commitments^[9].

Going into COP30, Brazil framed it as the “Amazon COP,” putting forests, Indigenous rights, food systems, and nature-based solutions at the center of global climate action. Although some stakeholders called the outcomes “weak” due to limited binding milestones, COP30 quietly delivered a subtle but an important shift:

• Climate action is now increasingly framed through the lens of economics and competitiveness, rather than a purely environmental obligation.

• Business-oriented levers, such as green fuels, resilient infrastructure, carbon markets, and just-transition investments, have shifted from being climate requirements to becoming strategic economic decisions

  
  

• The new green-finance architecture (NCQG) introduces predictability, allowing governments, investors and businesses to plan long-term and reduces uncertainty regarding where capital is likely to flow over the next decade.

  
  

For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the signal is direct: The architecture of Paris is moving from rulemaking to implementation. Finance targets are set, market rules exist, and political expectations on nature and just transition are tightening. The question for reginal leaders is no longer “What will the UN decide?” but “What are we actually going to build, retire, or redesign before this decade ends?”

The Region at Center Stage: COP30’s Big Takeaways

Capital will move toward climate-aligned sectors and early movers will benefit most – With global climate-finance “floors and ceilings” now defined, capital is expected to flow into categories related to resilient infrastructure, clean fuels, storage, water systems, adaptation tech, and circular materials. Gulf companies that move early can secure blended finance, lower capital costs, and priority access to green procurement.

Resilience and just-transition requirements will directly influence the cost of doing business – As global adaptation indicators become operational, they will impact credit ratings, insurance premiums, investor due diligence, and supply-chain expectations. Firms in climate-exposed sectors such as agriculture, logistics, manufacturing, retail, and real estate must demonstrate resilience or face higher operating and financing costs.

Voluntary coalitions are creating new competitive arenas and determining access to future markets – New gateways to global markets are opening up through coalitions which will drive demand for green steel, sustainable fuels, low-carbon logistics, high-integrity carbon-credits. GCC businesses that join early gain access to global buyers tightening Scope 3 rules; non-participants risk losing competitive positioning and certifications.

Climate strategy has shifted from reputation to economics: It is now a core business strategy — COP30 signals that climate ambition has become a market signal, shifting the needle from the Corporate Social Narrative (CSR) narrative. Robust transition planning, resilience investments, and green innovation will increasingly shape the long-term sustainable financial growth and will attract cheaper capital through sustainability-linked loans, green bonds, and blended-finance structures.

Nature and food-system resilience matter for business continuity in the water-stressed MENA region – With the region being the most water-stressed globally, Belém’s focus on forests, food systems, and Indigenous stewardship translates into a regional focus for water security, climate-smart agriculture, and use of technology to measure impacts.

Emerging global hub for premium carbon credits – Strengthened voluntary carbon market frameworks (ICVCM/VCMI) position GCC companies, especially energy, utilities, heavy industry, logistics to generate, trade, and retire premium credits from mangroves, blue carbon, engineered removals, and industrial capture.

Circularity is a major, underused economic lever for the Gulf – Even though it was not a headline theme at COP30, waste reduction, resource efficiency, and circular materials are powerful tools for lowering emissions, reducing pollution, and creating new SME and employment opportunities across construction, infrastructure, food waste, and e-waste.

The bottom line in all of this for Saudi and GCC businesses is straightforward “lead the transition or risk being locked out”. Climate practitioners and activists as well must recognise that meaningful climate action is now an economic, trade, and investment imperative—not just an environmental one. Early adopters will shape and dominate the region’s next decade of growth, while late movers will face exclusion from global value chains. Companies without credible transition plans risk higher premiums, reduced financing access, and declining competitiveness.

The Next Decade of Action: Implementation Imperative for MENA Leaders

The next decade will determine how effectively the MENA region captures the opportunities of global transition. By the time the NCQG reaches its 2035 horizon, companies unable to demonstrate real, verifiable progress will face higher capital costs, reduce market access, and growing reputational risk. With COP30 closing the rule-making chapter and ushering in the implementation era, the window for meaningful action is rapidly narrowing if we are to avoid irreversible climate-driven economic consequences. In this context, each stakeholder group now carries clear implementation imperatives.

For Boards and CEOs: Seizing the Transition Opportunity:

With finance targets and carbon-market rules clarified, arguments that “the frameworks aren’t ready” may no longer hold. Strategic leaders must prove they have credible transition plans and portfolios capable of absorbing capital. Every ambition must link directly to capital expenditure. Boards must demand NDC-aligned transition plans tailored to regional realities with clear 2030/2035 milestones, not CSR add-ons.

For CFOs and Investment Committees: Finance Transition Intelligently

The NCQG and Article 6 open new financing channels, but only for organizations ready to meet integrity thresholds. CFOs must identify which projects qualify for concessional finance, green or sustainability-linked instruments, or results-based carbon-market mechanisms. Climate-related risks should be taken into planning consideration and can no longer be treated as long-term hypotheticals, as they directly affect plant siting, asset life, insurance costs, and supply-chain design today. Rating agencies are intensifying scrutiny of transition claims; compliance, feasibility, and transparency are now non-negotiable.

For Project Owners: Build Bankable Pipelines

Investors across the region and beyond such as finance ministries, development banks, private capital, are all asking the same question: Where are the investable projects? Project owners are required to establish credible and technically sound pipelines across energy, industry, buildings, waste, nature, and adaptation, ensuring that all related cost and impact economic data are readily available for due-diligence processes.

For Sustainability Practitioners: Move from PowerPoints to Execution

Roadmaps alone will not attract capital. Each strategic theme e.g., energy, logistics, agriculture, industry, buildings, tourism must translate into concrete projects with defined returns, risks, and timelines. Teams also need deeper literacy in carbon and nature markets. With Article 6 moving forward and voluntary markets tightening, leaders must distinguish between high-integrity opportunities and reputational risks.

For Governments: Strengthen Governance and Measurement Systems

Effective transition plans require robust MRV, board-level accountability, executive incentives, and transparent reporting systems that satisfy regulators, investors, and market standards. The credibility of national strategies will increasingly determine the flow of international finance.

For Communities: Ensure a Fair, Inclusive, and People-Centered Transition

A successful transition is not only about technologies, targets, and investments, it is about people. Just transition cannot be an afterthought. It must be intentionally designed to ensure that communities, workers, and vulnerable groups benefit from the shift to a greener economy rather than bear its costs. It requires workforce retraining, community awareness, civil society engagements, and social inclusion. When managed well, the transition becomes not only climate-secure but opportunity-creating—delivering shared prosperity, better livelihoods, and stronger communities.

A Narrow but Defining Window

No, COP30 does not magically plug the gap to 1.5°C, nor does it resolve the deep challenges of climate finance or climate justice. Across every COP, one truth remains consistent: climate change is a goliath bigger than any single negotiation. Progress is piecemeal  - steps that rarely feel dramatic in the moment, yet together shape the world our next ten generations will inherit. That is the double-edged nature of this topic: its impacts are slow to reveal themselves, but the cost of inaction compounds quietly, relentlessly.

And so, the imperative to act today is not only moral, it is economic. Belém may have signalled the end of the rule-design era and the beginning of an accountability cycle. But the imperative is that, by 2035, when the NCQG is fully operational and the next wave of national commitments is due, the question will be painfully simple: “Who leverage transition opportunity this decade to build resilient, low-carbon, nature-positive economies, and who merely waited for the clock to run out?”

For leaders across Saudi Arabia and the wider MENA region, the choice is not between climate action and development. It is between shaping a transition that reflects the region’s own climate, water, urban realities or having that transition forced upon us by global markets, climate shocks, and external regulation. COP30 has not solved this dilemma; instead, it has made one thing unmistakably clear: We can no longer look away.